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关键指标显效：贝森特美债“救市”并非无用功？_我的网站

一 |     　　美国财政部长贝森特上周宣布将通过扩大长债回购来压低美国融资成本，这一突如其来的计划虽然引发了关于其最终成效的激烈辩论，但关键的市场指标与机构持仓数据却似乎表明，该举措已开始初步显现成效。    JACKSON, Miss. -- Incomplete homicide autopsy reports have continued to pile up in Mississippi - despite tough-on-crime talk by state leaders ahead of the Nov. 7 general election.Police officers and prosecutors rely on medical examiners' autopsy reports to investigate violent crimes and hold perpetrators accountable. Families look to the reports to make sense of a loved one’s death. Without death certificates, families often have to wait to collect insurance and settle the deceased’s affairs. Delays in completing autopsies of the dead remain an ongoing problem.The National Association of Medical Examiners, the office that accredits U.S. death investigations offices, dictates that 90% of autopsy reports should be returned within 60 to 90 days. Homicide autopsies in Mississippi continue to lag behind national standards as crime has remained a flashpoint in the state legislature and campaign trail.Republican Gov. Tate Reeves, who is running for reelection, makes a point of his commitment to law enforcement in public speeches and on the campaign trail.“In Mississippi, we choose to fund the police. We choose to back the blue,” Reeves said in his annual State of the State speech in January. “That’s exactly what Mississippi has done, and that’s exactly what Mississippi will continue to do.” In 2022, an AP analysis based on state data and documents found that Mississippi’s system has long violated national standards for death investigations, accruing a severe backlog of autopsies and reports. Moreover, Mississippi has the highest homicide mortality rate in the country, according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Mississippi Public Safety Commissioner Sean Tindell has called the backlog “unacceptable” and said he’d instituted a policy requiring all autopsy reports to be completed within 90 days. Tindell, a former judge who was appointed commissioner in 2020 by Reeves, said in August that his office had completed a "decade-old autopsy backlog in record time.” But records obtained by The Associated Press show that as of Oct. 1 of this year, Mississippi had 51 homicide autopsy reports that were incomplete for longer than 60 days; and 45 autopsies pending after more than 90 days. Three other autopsy reports for 2023 took over 90 days to complete. Democrat Brandon Presley, Reeves' opponent for governor in next month's general election, has implied Tindell should never have been appointed.“It’s not rocket science to want someone who has worn a badge to run the state’s largest law enforcement agency,” Presley said on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. “Unlike Tate Reeves, I’ll have professionals running agencies, not cronies.” Tindell responded on the same social media platform by saying Presley “isn’t just attacking me ... He’s attacking law & order."Tindell's spokesperson did not respond to an emailed list of questions or phone messages. But Tindell has said the state forensics laboratory and medical examiner’s office suffered from a lack of funding.At a campaign event Monday, Reeves said the backlog reached back as far as 2009 and that it shouldn't be blamed on Tindell.Jody Owens, district attorney for Hinds County, the largest county in Mississippi, said autopsy reports for homicides in his jurisdiction were still rarely done within a 90-day window. "That's just not where we are," the Democrat prosecutor said. “We are nowhere near 90 days. We have autopsies that have still been pending, sometimes for years.”Delayed autopsy reports create bureaucratic hurdles for prosecutors and defense attorneys. Reports can help determine whether a death was an accident, a suicide or a homicide. They can shed light on whether a person accused of murder acted in self-defense, with stark implications for both the accuser and the accused. “You can't make a (plea) offer without an autopsy report because it establishes the manner and cause of death. Without having that, you really can't move a case," Owens said. “States like Mississippi are safest when autopsy reports are completed within 90 days. It not only protects the defendant's rights, but also the state's obligation to give victims their day in court.”。　　数据显示，自贝森特上周宣布该计划以来，美国国债的表现已超越同期限利率互换，30年期的两者利差缩窄至了今年2月以来的最低水平。基准美债收益率在美国财政部宣布将长期债券回购规模“至少翻倍”后，经历了最初的剧烈波动，随后呈现震荡走低态势。　　花旗集团美国利率策略主管Jason Williams表示，“这种全新的财政部‘看跌期权’为市场提供了潜在的政策背书，从而改善了持有长端国债的风控不对称性。

二 | 贝森特最近的一系列举措——包括增加回购规模以及干预日元汇率，无不表明他正准备不惜一切代价来实现其既定目标。”　　周一，美国媒体报道称，美国财政部可能会动用其存放在美联储的现金——即财政部一般账户(TGA)——来为这笔扩大的长期国债购买计划提供资金支持。这一消息进一步提振了市场情绪，而国际原油价格的回落，也同步为债市提供了上涨动力。　　尽管长期融资成本仍徘徊在多年高位，且推动全球收益率上行的诸多结构性因素依然未变，但市场近期走势表明，若非贝森特的干预，收益率本会更高。　　即便这项扩大的回购计划长期效果仍存疑虑——例如贝森特“恩师”、亿万富翁投资者德鲁肯米勒等权威人士便公开批评贝森特的干预是一个错误——但众多交易员已清晰意识到市场上出现了一位“强力买家”，因而普遍不愿贸然站在“贝森特看跌期权”的对立面。

三 | 　　期权市场也呈现出类似的主题——过去一周市场呈现出明显的看涨倾向，这表现为追踪长期美债的国债期货看涨期权持仓量相较于看跌期权急剧攀升。相比之下，较短期限美债期货的波动率偏度(skews)则继续维持在过去几个月普遍处于的中性水平附近。　　“当前的‘操作’集中在长端，而市场目前的担忧——如果可以这么说的话——是长债收益率可能会因干预而暴跌，”R.J. OBrien & Associates的衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara分析道。　　利率互换是一种常见的衍生品合约，交易双方约定交换未来的利息现金流，通常是以浮动利率交换固定利率。企业和机构投资者常利用它来规避利率风险，例如将其支付端与未来的负债进行匹配。

四 | 在美国，这类合约通常与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩，其中30年期互换利率精准反映了市场对未来三十年平均利率水平的预期——这使其成为一种在金融属性上与30年期美国国债高度对标的产品。　　近年来，随着全球政府债券供给量急剧膨胀，美债收益率与互换利率之间的分化急剧扩大。

五 | 这种利差走势吸引了大量对冲基金入场做空或做多互换利差。美联储研究人员估算，对冲基金在这类策略上的持仓规模已从2022年的不足500亿美元飙升至去年的创纪录水平——3050亿美元。　　尽管目前30年期美国国债收益率仍远高于互换利率，但贝森特的表态已带来了一定程度的边际修复。10年期互换利差同步迎来收窄，两者间距缩窄了3个基点，降至约38个基点。　　ING Groep NV纽约地区研究主管Padhraic Garvey表示，互换利差的收窄充分反映了市场对“只要财政部认为政策合适，未来完全可能一而再、再而三地追加回购”这一预期。　　当然，客观来看，近期长债收益率的回落，还仅能算是对长期美债融资成本多年来的攀升态势构成的微幅修正。被贝森特点名作为特朗普政府重点调控目标的10年期美债收益率目前仍交易在4.6%上方，接近2025年初以来的最高水平；30年期美债收益率则维持在5.2%附近，距离2007年以来的历史高位仅一步之遥。　　Pimco公共政策主管Libby Cantrill总结道：“虽然在收益率曲线长端实施回购能在技术上压低收益率，但导致美债收益率居高不下的根本性矛盾——尤其是美国结构性预算赤字的显著增加，这需要大量国债供应来为美国债务提供资金——在短期内根本无法改变。”（文章来源：财联社）。

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